Commitments of Traders
Speculators were bullish this week. They added 3.5K new longs and at the same time they covered 15K of their shorts. They were 77K net short, down from 95K last week and 112K two weeks ago. In the last five weeks speculators went from being extremely net short @ 126K to hold only 77K net short positions. This is a huge swing and indicate that speculators are becoming more bullish in JPY futures right after being extremely short. This is supportive of the further downtrend in USDJPY below the 108 support.
Good NFP numbers two weeks ago didn't make a dent in the EURUSD bullish price action. Last friday’s poor CPI and a dismal PPI numbers in the previous day helped to propel EURUSD up. The price had risen from the support at 1.1650 and closed the week at 1.1820. It's hard to see US Dollar positive news these days.Eur, from the other hand shows many signs of recovery so far. My bias remains bullish but I expect some correction down from the current levels first.
AUDUSD closed the week at 0.7910. The pair retraced from the highs and it is slowly trending down towards major support at 0.7730. The speculative net positions are approaching extreme levels and the support at 0.7730 will show if the price will respect it and continue higher or if speculators will tip the scales again and collapse Aussie much lower.
EURUSD was strong for another week. The pair was trading and closed the week near the highs at 1.1730. This is a major resistance where the price found a lot of selling in the past and it could be the case this time too. Overall, if the correction to the downside occurs, it is likely to be shallow and short lived.
Same theme prevailed. Speculators added another 9.2K new longs and only 1.7K shorts. They were 91K net long, all time high for another week. Open interest bridged was at 446K, closed to all time high (448K in October last year ) when the EURUSD dropped from 1.12 to 1.05.
USDCAD kept dropping like a stone. It had fallen over 800 pips since speculators reached extreme levels few weeks ago. READ IT HERE. There are still many shorts to be covered. The price is likely to drop further. My bias remains USDCAD short.
AUD rallied once again. The pair closed the week at the highest level since March 2017. Technicals suggest, the rally should continue towards 0.78 resistance. My long term bias is neutral but I am in a LONG POSITION with target at 0.7800. Seems like speculators getting caught on the wrong side of the market here.
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