Commitments of Traders
Speculators covered only few longs ( 348 ) but added 3K fresh short positions. They were almost 53K net short, up from being 49.5K in the previous week. As tehnet levels of the position didn’t change much compared to the previous week, the short positions as a % of total interest rose to 49.8%. This is the highest level since November last year. Few week before that, in May 2017 speculators held 60 % of all open interest in longs, the price of USDCAD went from 134 to 1.21. Today we are approaching a similar extreme. If this metric will reach over 58%, it will give enough reasons to believe that USDCAD will collapse in major way. Definitely the one to watch out for in the next few weeks.
Open Interest also declined by a whooping 31K. A decrease in open interest on rising prices means the current trend is running out of steam and it will soon reverse. It’s also worth noticing that now speculators hold 46% of the total open interests in short positions. This figure jumped from 31% last week and it is highest since mid April. The “tipping point” for this market comes in at around 55%. If we see this metric increasing in the coming weeks, we can expect the major turn around in this market.
This week speculators became net short. They covered 22K of their long positions and they got 7.8K of fresh shorts. This is a clear bearish outlook from this group and suggests a major shift in the prices of GBP across the board. As of today, speculators are 19K net short. This accounts for 38% of a total open interest, which leaves us with plenty room for the shorts to be added here.
Speculators added 8.5K new longs and left their shorts unchanged. They were 5K net long this week. This is the first time they became net long in JPY futures since early May 2018. This behaviour suggests, the speculators are gearing up for a move down from the resistance at 111.00 – 111.50
Speculators added 9K new long positions and 12.7K new short positions this week. They were 89K net long, which is the lowest since they became net long back in September 2017. It’s worth to note that the Open Interest grew significantly. This week the total open interest was at 576K positions. The highest open interest ever recorded in this market was 608K positions in March this year. This is when the EURUSD topped and collapsed by 1000 pips in three months. Rising open interest on lower prices supports the current downtrend. If we get over 600K, we might start looking at other reversal/extreme signals but for now, sell on rallies is a preferred strategy in the long term
Speculators added 2.5K new longs and 4.7K new shorts this week. They were 23K net short. This is the most net short they have been since 2016. Looking at the rising price action off the support at 0.7450, we see that speculators are getting caught on the wrong side of the market. The price rallies while they are selling AUD Futures. This is one mixed outlook but I am in favour of higher prices in AUDUSD. I expect speculators to catch up very quickly and add more bullish pressure to the price action.
This week speculators added 6.6K new long positions and 12K ( twice as many ) short positions. They were almost 110K net long. This is down from 115K in the previous week and 120K two weeks ago. They are clearly dumping longs and adding a lot of short positions recently. Net positions trend below 33 weeks moving average and the current downturn remains supported by smart money.
This week speculators piled on JPY longs adding 13K of them. They also added 4K of the short positions. This made them 3.6K net long for this week. This is the most net long since they became net long back in March this year. It is clearly changed sentiment from the previous two weeks when they were net bearish with 5.4K positions in the red. It seems like speculators are getting bullish on JPY ( This is USDJPY bearish )
Speculators covered a lot of their long positions recently. This week they closed out whooping 22.3K longs and it the last 3 weeks they covered 51K long contracts. This accounts for almost half of the total. They held 113K longs 4 weeks ago. This is one very bearish signal for GBP for now. This week speculators were 9K net long, down from 26K in the previous week. 33 moving average of net positions comes in 17K so this market is officially in the downtrend.
This week we saw more bearish confirmation and more signals to suggest that the EURUSD rally might be ending. This week speculators dumped a massive 21K longs and only 1K shorts.Covered longs accounted for almost 10% of all speculative longs. All closed in one week. This is hugely bearish signal. Other metrics reported in the previous week were suggesting the top is now in place. As this needs a little bit more confirmation. The warning must be issued. This looks to me like EURUSD has topped and the downtrend is very likely.
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