Commitments of Traders
Good NFP numbers two weeks ago didn't make a dent in the EURUSD bullish price action. Last friday’s poor CPI and a dismal PPI numbers in the previous day helped to propel EURUSD up. The price had risen from the support at 1.1650 and closed the week at 1.1820. It's hard to see US Dollar positive news these days.Eur, from the other hand shows many signs of recovery so far. My bias remains bullish but I expect some correction down from the current levels first.
AUDUSD closed the week at 0.7910. The pair retraced from the highs and it is slowly trending down towards major support at 0.7730. The speculative net positions are approaching extreme levels and the support at 0.7730 will show if the price will respect it and continue higher or if speculators will tip the scales again and collapse Aussie much lower.
EURUSD was strong for another week. The pair was trading and closed the week near the highs at 1.1730. This is a major resistance where the price found a lot of selling in the past and it could be the case this time too. Overall, if the correction to the downside occurs, it is likely to be shallow and short lived.
Same theme prevailed. Speculators added another 9.2K new longs and only 1.7K shorts. They were 91K net long, all time high for another week. Open interest bridged was at 446K, closed to all time high (448K in October last year ) when the EURUSD dropped from 1.12 to 1.05.
EURUSD traded to the downside after forming a strong engulfing daily candle last week. The pair moved down towards the local support but gain the tracking again after dismal US data last Friday. Im bias is more and more bullish on Eur Futures - See more at: http://humbletraders.com/c-o-t-report-week-18-warning-specs-net-long-eur-all-time-high-net-short-in-cad/#sthash.WRJScj5e.dpuf
Speculators covered 17K shorts and added additional 1.6K new longs. There were only 1.5K net short. This is massively down from 20K last week and 21K two weeks ago. They hold the least shorts as a % of total open Interest ( 40% ), which suggests more higher prices. - See more at: http://humbletraders.com/c-o-t-report-week-17-speculators-almost-net-long-in-eur-futures/#sthash.8uANa3tH.dpuf
If you are trading the euro, you need to be watching the election in France this weekend. While it is the first of two rounds with a final vote scheduled for May 7th, the winner's lead could set the tone for how European assets trade for the next few weeks.
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