Commitments of Traders
This is the first view into speculative positions for many weeks. CFTC finally caught up with the backlog. This week speculators loaded up on both sides of the trade. They added 12K new long positions and 17.7K new short positions. They were 78K net short, which is highest since Christmas 2016. Although this seems extreme, the shorts still have a room to grow. The last extreme levels we saw counted in 245K short positions and the net positions turned at around 130K.
High open interest suggest overcrowded market and there might be a reversal looming as there is no many traders willing to transact. Every time Open Interest reached high levels, EURUSD bottomed or topped and reversed, giving a beginning of a new long term trend. It worth mentioning that the extreme level of net positions always accompanied the reversals in the past. This is not the case now ( not yet anyway). I would expect the open interest to keep climbing while net positions will reach extreme level sometimes early next year. If these two variables line up, we could see EURUSD bottoming up and reversing to the upside.
Speculators have been rather bearish in the last 2 weeks. They covered 8K of their long positions and this is after they covered another 4.2K in the week before. At the same time, they kept their longs unchanged. They were 55K net short, which is up from being 47K in the previous week and 37K in the week before that. Clearly , speculators are becoming more bearish in EUR futures.It’s too early to call these levels extreme.
Speculative positions confirm that, at least short term upside is plausible and might gain some traction going forward. Speculators added almost 13K new long positions and only 3K shorts. This is clearly a bullish sentiment. They were 37K net short, which was down from 46K in the previous week. Open Interest rose on rising, which is always a bullish signal
This week, speculators were firmly bearish in EUR futures. They covered 8.7K of their long positions and added 5.4K fresh shorts.This is a clear sell off from smart money. They were 46K net short, which was up from being 32K in the previous week. In fact, speculators have not been so bearish in this market since march 2017. The current downtrend is likely to continue below 1.13
The speculative net positions in AUD futures are/have been at an extreme levels for few weeks.The last time we saw 70K net short was in March 2015. AUDUSD rallied 600 pips. The conditions seem perfect for the price to reverse from here to the upside, at least for few hundreds pips.
This week, speculators covered 8K short positions and left their longs unchanged.They were 92K net short, which is down from being 100K net short in the previous week and from being 115K net short week before that. The EXTREME reading of 115K net short and 67% share of Open Interest three weeks ago marked a technical top in USDJPY. These metrics were never wrong to call a major top or bottom before but many times the price lagged. The current price action is erratic and not in downtrend yet. We will need to break 111.50 for bear market to really take off.
After speculators held their positions unchanged in the previous week, they added fresh 2K longs and covered 8K shorts this week. The same pattern continues. Smart money is slowly getting out of short Pound futures but still reluctant to add longs. This week they were 50K net short, which was down from 60K in the previous week. Open interest was flat. My bias is to the downside in the short term but I expect long term bottom to form around the current level ( 1.27 low )
Speculators were clearly bearish for a 2nd consecutive week. This time they covered 2.4K of long positions and added fresh 6.6K shorts. They were 16K net short, up from being 7K in the previous week and 3.6K net LONG two weeks ago. The bearish sentiment is clearly present among smart money traders. Given the divergence in price, rallies should be sold.
Speculators added 8.8K new long positions and at the same time they added whooping 38K new shorts. They were 114K net short, which is lowest in 2018. The last time speculators were this much net short, the price moved from 113 to 104 in few short months. This could be the same case again, given the price action has been very strong and it is trading near a major resistance. We could have a major top forming at 114 once again.
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