Commitments of Traders
No much change in AUD market. The speculators left their longs unchanged and covered another 1.4K of their short positions. This was the 7th week of short covering. In total, speculators covered 21K of their short AUD positions. Given the fact that speculative positions bottomed out 2-3 weeks go and the price action is clearly pushing up, I see this as a beginning of a large bull market in AUDUSD.
This week speculators were rather on the bearish side. They added fresh 5.4K short positions and only 1.2 long positions. This sentiment, however needs to be assessed together with the previous week. Two week ago, speculators covered 26K of their short positions and another 21K 4 weeks ago. In total, speculators covered 65K of their short positions in the last 9 weeks.
Speculators added 5K long positions and covered a whooping 18.3K of their shorts. They were 14K net shorts, which was significantly changed from 38K in the previous week. Speculators are clearly becoming CAD bullish ( USDCAD bearish ) It could trigger larger downside in this market.
Speculators shifted their sentiment to the bullish side of the market. This week they added 13K new long positions and, at the same time they covered 21K of their short positions. This made them be 52K net short, which was sharply less from 86K in the previous week. As I mentioned last week, I think the bottom is in place and more upside is to play out in this market. 1.25 could be next stop
Speculators turned bearish. This week they took profits and covered 8.2K of their long positions and 11.2K of their short positions. They were 45K net short, which was slightly down from being 47K net short in the previous week. As of last week, net speculative positions are trading below 33 weeks moving average, which suggests more significant downside to come in the next few weeks.
Speculators were right again, given the fact that the price collapsed ( as expected ) and the fact that they have been covering shorts in a big way in the last few weeks. This week’s adjustments were only minor. They covered 1.7K longs and 1.3K shorts. Net positions sat at 55.5K, insignificantly changed from the 55.1K in the previous week. More downside to come in USDJPY.
Similarly to EUR Futures, speculators were bearish on GBP. They covered 3.7K of their long positions and added a SIGNIFICANT amount of shorts ( 19.1K ) They were much more net short ( 26K ), compared to being 3.3K in the previous week. It seems like the recent collapse in GBP markets made speculators to load up on more shorts.
Speculators took profits this week. They covered 2K of their long positions and, at the same time they covered 13K of their shorts. They were 95K net short, down from being a record 106K in the previous week. It might be that the bottom in EURUSD is now formed and we might see a large push to the upside in the coming weeks.
EUR Futures: Speculators made only a minor adjustments to their positions. They covered 1.1K long positions and only 627 short positions. They were 106K net shrt, which is considered an extreme level. Shar of open interest is also high ( 50.1% ). The same outlook remains valid: Expect this market to bottom and reverse to the upside fairly soon
Speculators buy GBP despite a negative sentiment around Brexit. This week they added 8.5K fresh long positions and 11K shorts. They were 1.8K net short, this is after being NET LONG in the previous week. Overall, speculators have been steadily buying GBP futures in the recent week. If the trend continues, they will be solid net long in 2-3 weeks. It will be time to load up on GBP longs.
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