Commitments of Traders
Speculators turned bearish. This week they took profits and covered 8.2K of their long positions and 11.2K of their short positions. They were 45K net short, which was slightly down from being 47K net short in the previous week. As of last week, net speculative positions are trading below 33 weeks moving average, which suggests more significant downside to come in the next few weeks.
Speculators were right again, given the fact that the price collapsed ( as expected ) and the fact that they have been covering shorts in a big way in the last few weeks. This week’s adjustments were only minor. They covered 1.7K longs and 1.3K shorts. Net positions sat at 55.5K, insignificantly changed from the 55.1K in the previous week. More downside to come in USDJPY.
Similarly to EUR Futures, speculators were bearish on GBP. They covered 3.7K of their long positions and added a SIGNIFICANT amount of shorts ( 19.1K ) They were much more net short ( 26K ), compared to being 3.3K in the previous week. It seems like the recent collapse in GBP markets made speculators to load up on more shorts.
Speculators took profits this week. They covered 2K of their long positions and, at the same time they covered 13K of their shorts. They were 95K net short, down from being a record 106K in the previous week. It might be that the bottom in EURUSD is now formed and we might see a large push to the upside in the coming weeks.
EUR Futures: Speculators made only a minor adjustments to their positions. They covered 1.1K long positions and only 627 short positions. They were 106K net shrt, which is considered an extreme level. Shar of open interest is also high ( 50.1% ). The same outlook remains valid: Expect this market to bottom and reverse to the upside fairly soon
Speculators buy GBP despite a negative sentiment around Brexit. This week they added 8.5K fresh long positions and 11K shorts. They were 1.8K net short, this is after being NET LONG in the previous week. Overall, speculators have been steadily buying GBP futures in the recent week. If the trend continues, they will be solid net long in 2-3 weeks. It will be time to load up on GBP longs.
After adding fresh 24K shorts two weeks ago, speculators took some profits last week. They covered 4.5K long positions and only 1.5K shorts. They were 102K new short. This is yet another consecutive week with higher net positions in this market. Historically, we are looking at 120K as an ultimate low. There is still some room for more shorts but at this point EUR market is getting seriously oversold
No much change to the bullish sentiment has been present in this market in the last few weeks. Speculators added 5.7K new longs and 7.1K new shorts to their portfolios. They were 10K new short, slightly changed from being 8.5K in the previous week. This is treated as bullish to me as the speculative positions are trending above 33 weeks moving averages. GBP will surprise the market to the upside, watch it!
Speculators, after taking profits last week were rather bearish. They covered 2K of their long positions and added fresh 570 shorts. These adjustments are only small. Speculators were 80K net short, which was up from being 77K in the previous week. Speculators have been becoming more bearish every week and this week’s volume is the largest they were net short since January 2017
There was a major shift in the speculative positions for GBP Futures. This week speculators left their long positions unchanged by covered a significant volume ( 22.7K ) of their short positions. This account for 35% reduction of short exposure and signifies long bias from the smart money. Speculators were 13K net short, down from being 36K net short in the previous week. These two signals confirm my bias outlook for GBPUSD. We are likely to see higher GBP prices, despite the Brexit drama.
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