Commitments of Traders
There are a few conflicting signals in GBP positions this week. Speculators covered a significant amount of their long positions, 12.2K while the price of GBPUSD spiked and ended the week at 1.2665 - 3 months high. At the same time, they added only 1.5K of short positions. This outlook would suggest a rather bearish sentiment but the price action prevailed and speculators were caught on the wrong side of the transactions.
Speculative positions confirm higher prices in EURUSD.This week speculators were bullish adding 7.2K new long positions and 4.6K short positions. They were 75.2K new long, which was up from 72.5K in the previous week. The price action spiked and EURUSD finished the week at 3 month high - above 1.11. I would expect the uptrend to strengthen from here on
After being strongly bearish in the previous week, speculators added new positions on both sides of the transaction. They added 3.4K of long positions and 5.1K short positions. They were 13.7K net short, which was less from 12K in the previous week and lowest since they became net short. I expect the current downtrend to continue in the coming weeks.
Speculators are also bearish in GBP futures this week. They added 2K of fresh short positions and covered 3.4K of their long positions. They were 12K net short, which was significantly higher from being 6.6K in the previous week. This week’s net positions are the highest since they became net short ( 3 weeks ago ). The sell off is likely to continue in the coming weeks.
Speculators were clearly bearish this week. They covered 3.7K of their long positions and added a fresh 1.3K of shorts. They were 29K net short, which was up from being 24K net short in the previous week. This scenario would suggest some movement to the downside in USDCAD in the coming weeks.
The Cable, as expected, was down this week. The pair closed at 1.2365 on Friday. It was in line with the current speculative sentiment. This week speculators covered 760 long positions and added fresh 3.8K short contracts. This put them into being net short by a 1.3K contracts. They are net short for the first time this year. If the selling continues we are likely to see more downside in GBPUSD market in the coming weeks.
Although the fundamentals remain rather bearish for EUR, speculative positions paint a slightly different picture. This week they covered another 3.1K of their short positions and added a fresh 3.9K long positions. This is after a massive short covering that has been going on for the last six weeks when speculators covered 193K of their shorts. It is worth mentioning that speculators added 7.5K new long contracts during this period.
Speculators have been JPY bullish for 3 weeks now. This week they added new 2.8K long positions and covered 1.4K of their shorts. They were 22K net short, which was down from being 26K in the previous week. The price action is trending to the upside so it looks like the speculators are getting caught on the wrong side of the market. This doesn't happen often and the speculative bias eventually prevails. Its too early to say but perhaps the upside in USDJPY could be limited.
Speculators added to both sides of the trade this week. They opened fresh 12.4K long positions and 24.2K of short positions. They were 59K net short, which was down from 47K in the previous trading week. Overall this week’s positions look bearish but the net speculative positions remain above 33 weeks moving average, which defines longer term uptrend. Despite bearish outlook this week, EURUSD spiked to the upside, confirming the main trend remains upwards. I expect higher prices to follow
This week, speculators added 4.3K new long positions and 3.1K short positions to their portfolios. They were 47K net short, which was lower than 48K in the previous trading week. The same dynamic continues, smart money buys EUR Futures on declining prices while the Open Interest rises. This is clear bullish sentiment and should indicate higher prices are to come in the nearest future.
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