Daily Trading Setups, Trading Ideas and Technical Analysis
All time frames covered. Issued daily
Today's Risk Events
00:30 AUD Employment Change / Unemployment Rate
The employment rate reflects the monthly change in the number of employed citizens of Australia. The growth of the indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending, which stimulates economic growth. The high value of the indicator is a positive factor for AUD, and the low value is negative. Forecast: in September the number of employed citizens of Australia increased by 15,200 people (against increasing by +44,000 people in August). /
Also at the same time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a report on unemployment – an indicator that measures the ratio of the proportion of the unemployed population to the total number of able-bodied citizens. The growth of the indicator shows the weakness of the labor market, which leads to a weakening of the national economy. A decrease in the index is a positive factor for AUD. Forecast: unemployment in Australia in September remained at the same level of 5.3%.
If the values of the indicators are worse than the forecast, the Australian dollar will decrease.
Tentative JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
The head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda will comment on the monetary policy of the bank. Following the results of the last meeting, the Bank of Japan’s board of directors decided to leave the key rate at the level of -0.1% by majority vote, and the target level of 10-year government bonds yield is about zero. The bank did not change the guidelines for further monetary policy adopted in July, and reiterated that it would leave interest rates at an extremely low level “for an extended period”. “We will keep extremely low rates for a long period of time”, said the Head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda, adding that “it is necessary to continue patiently the easing of monetary and credit policy”. Markets usually noticeably react to Kuroda’s speeches. If he touches on the topic of monetary policy during his speech, volatility will grow not only in the yen trade, but throughout the Asian and global financial markets.
08:30 GBP Retail Sales m / m
The report on retail sales is produced by the Office of National Statistics of Great Britain. The change in retail sales is generally considered an indicator of consumer spending. In general, the high value of the indicator is a positive factor for GBP, while the low one is a negative factor. Forecast: in September the volume of retail sales decreased by -0.3% (against growth of 0.3% in the previous month), which will have a negative impact on the pound when the forecast is confirmed.
All Day EUR, GBP EU Economic Summit
European leaders meet to discuss future Brexit agreement.
Negotiations on Brexit over the weekend once again stalled, reducing the chances of a possible agreement on exit of the UK from the EU. Increasing the risk of hard Brexit is extremely negative in affecting the quotes of a pound.’
Daily Momentum: DOWNTREND
As expected, EURUSD moved sharply lower after a fake move up in the previous session. Today the pair closed the day almost 100 pips lower. As of this point, I expect this market to move much lower.
No signal, after a move like this any long positions should be abandoned.
My short position at 1.1560 was filled. It is now in money and the stop is moved to break even. My targets sit at 1.1340 support. I will be looking to add to short position on pull backs. Watch for corrective rallies on 4hrs charts towards 8 EMA. Once in place, sell it with target at new lows
Daily Momentum: SIDEWAYS
The Cable decided to reverse and moved lower during today’s session. It closed the day at 1.3103. At this stage the price action is rather mixed and it is hard to see which way it will resolve. Both directions are possible. Personally, I would expect a further drop and then a rally from 1.3050
Bulls will have to wait for the price to break above 1.32 at least to consider any long positions. Lower that that belongs to bears.
My first long positions broke even
My second long position didn’t fill and it is now cancelled.
I will be looking to sell GBPUSD on rallies as long as it trades below 1.3200
I will be watching out for a correction upwards on intra-day charts towards 1.3140 or at least 8ema. Once this is in place, look to sell. The exact entry is not known as of now. It will reveal its self during tomorrow’s session. Aim for a support at 1.3050
Daily Momentum: DOWNTREND
USD/JPY rallied up for a 2nd consecutive day. The pair was strong and closed the day at 112.66. This is my sweet resistance spot. I would expect the price to top around here, consolidate for a little while and move down. Lets see how it plays out from here.
Bulls and Bears
The current 112.60 is a strong resistance and likely to find some sellers. Given the price has been moving up here very sharply, I expect some consolidation. At the moment it is not clear how it will resolve, either to the downside or will it continue higher. I would like to give it few days and see but my bias is to the downside.
Daily Momentum: DOWNTREND
Aussie finally played the top out. The price reverse sharply lower after a fake break to the upside in the previous session. I expect the price to keep moving down from here.
Bulls – no signals
The price resumed longer term downtrend. Long positions are not recommended.
Bears – same as before
My short position is now filled (0.7110) my stop loss is placed at few pips above the recent fake top at 0.7160, targeting the low at 0.7040. While moving down, I will be looking to add to the short position on rallies. Exact entries are not clear now, but they will come into play during the trading day. Watch out for corrective rallies to 8eema on 4 hrs charts
Daily Momentum: UPTREND
GLD staged another down day after a sharp rally recently. This is only a corrective move toward the support and any attempts of 1213 should be bought.
Bulls should be getting ready for a good long entry in GOLD. I expect the price to stay going down for a little while longer, but another larger move will be to the upside.
I’m am looking at 1213 as a perfect entry point. Let’s see if GLD will give it to us before the weekend
Bears – no signals