Premium Elliott Wave Analysis
EURUSD did drop today but nothing significant so far. I want to see a decline below the support level of wave 3 pink at 1.0715 before calling the high in place. It is worth noting on the 4hr chart, the impulsive and rapid nature of the declines VS the overlapping, labored and corrective nature of the rallies. This is the essence of the difference between a trend move and a corrective move.
The DOW rallied to the upper trend line as expected, and so far the decline off todays high looks like a developing impulse wave to the downside. todays high at 21022 is now an important resistance level in terms of the immediately bearish wave count. If that high holds, and the price starts to decline below support at 20777, that will add serious weight to the bearish outlook.
The expanded flat wave 'ii' brown, seems to be working out well so far. The sharp decline this evening has brought the price to below support at wave 'a' pink. This is the minimum target for an expanded flat, wave 'c' pink should trace out 5 internal waves. So I am allowing for further declines to complete, The next support comes in at 112.60, so I will be watching for a turn up from around that level.
Since yesterdays high at 1.0714, in a possible wave 'ii' brown, the price has fallen away pretty impulsively in what is likely the begining of wave 'iii' brown. The price fell through support at 1.0630, this now becomes resistance in the new down trend. The fact that prices fell back through the previous lower high at wave 'a', adds weight to the bearish stance.
USDJPY stalled today in a sideways holding pattern. Indicating that wave 'ii' brown is likely still under way. slightly below 113.50 remains the likely target for wave a 'ii' completion. It is possible that the decline will trace out three waves in a complex corrective form.
This low could prove to be a serious buying opportunity given the bullish setup we have in the larger wave count. the price has spiked higher off that low also in an impulsive fashion. I am definitely watching this one closely for the formation of a higher low on monday. The rise so far looks encouraging.
Every fundamental analyst on the planet had expected a large rally today after a gangbusters job report yesterday. The elliott wave analyst knows that market prices are regulated endogenously, and not by outside forces. The developing elliott wave structure hints at the beginning of a new bear market with a 5 wave structure possibly complete at todays lows, so the jobs numbers will not affect that price structure in the way you might expect. In fact, economic variables are usually right and rosy and the picture of health at the end of a bull market, not at the beginning! I have altered the declining wedge idea from yesterday to reflect todays action.
I have switched to the alternate wave count today in EURUSD. I had been expecting accceleration to the downside in a possible wave 'iii', but this simply has not materialised as of yet. So the next best interpretation is an ongoing complex correction in wave 'ii'. This wave count better accounts for the sideways action of the last few weeks.
The wave count in GOLD has performed well over the last week, calling every drop as t happened. the call for one more decline into the lower trend line today came true and the the price hit the first target at 1216 which I had spoke about last week. the price would have to fall a few more points to actually hit the lower trend line at about 1208 or so.
This content is for members only