Commitments of Traders
Speculators covered 17K shorts and added additional 1.6K new longs. There were only 1.5K net short. This is massively down from 20K last week and 21K two weeks ago. They hold the least shorts as a % of total open Interest ( 40% ), which suggests more higher prices. - See more at: http://humbletraders.com/c-o-t-report-week-17-speculators-almost-net-long-in-eur-futures/#sthash.8uANa3tH.dpuf
If you are trading the euro, you need to be watching the election in France this weekend. While it is the first of two rounds with a final vote scheduled for May 7th, the winner's lead could set the tone for how European assets trade for the next few weeks.
Speculators added 4K fresh long positions and covered 7.6K shorts. The same theme prevailed over the last three weeks, where speculators are selling off their shorts and acquire new longs.In three weeks they opened 25K new longs and closed 25K shorts at the same time. It’s fairly strong bullish sentiment. They are 7.9K net short, lowest since May 2014. If this there continues, soon smart money will be net long in Eur Futures for the first time in 3 years.
Investors had been hoping for a less dovish interpretation of this month’s FOMC meeting from Yellen and Dudley but both members of the Fed leadership failed did make any specific mention of monetary policy or the economy. Instead, the loudest comments came from Fed President Kashkari who was the only voting member of the central bank who opted to keep interest rates unchanged at the last meeting.
The greenback tumbled against all of the major currencies. Investors began unwinding their long dollar positions ahead of the rate decision on the view that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would not be hawkish enough and they were right. She did not suggest that the next hike would be in June and the dot plot forecast showed U.S. policymakers looking for 2 and not 3 more rounds of tightening this year.
Cable was trading lower for the second consecutive week. The pair closed the week at 1.2164 and it is trading near a major support at 1.2030 Speculators were more bearish this week and the net positions are at 81K, slightly below our 33 weeks moving average. This raises a flag and this market could be turning into more bearish outlook. I would like to see the positions next week to confirm the possible change in sentiment.
C.O.T Report – Week 8. Speculators become extreme long in AUD suggesting lower prices in the short term
Speculators bought AUD Futures once again! This week they added 7K new longs and covered 11K shorts.This makes them 52K net long. This is highest since April last year when Aussie collapsed from 0.7780 to 0.7200. This extreme level is also confirmed by large percentage of Open Interest held in long positions.
EURUSD rallied from the support at 1.05 to reach 1.0611 and then the market reversed back down and closed the week at 1.0558.I expect the price to range for a while between 1.0620 and 1.0520 and reverse upwards. Only the break and close below 1.0500 would suggest more downside towards 1.0350. Speculators were less bullish this week but overall their net positions are increasing hence my bias remains bullish in the long term.
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